RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Cholera outbreaks are on the rise globally, with conflict-affected settings particularly at risk. Case-area targeted interventions (CATIs), a strategy whereby teams provide a package of interventions to case and neighboring households within a predefined "ring," are increasingly employed in cholera responses. However, evidence on their ability to attenuate incidence is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study in 3 conflict-affected states in Nigeria in 2021. Enumerators within rapid response teams observed CATI implementation during a cholera outbreak and collected data on household demographics; existing water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure; and CATI interventions. Descriptive statistics showed that CATIs were delivered to 46,864 case and neighbor households, with 80.0% of cases and 33.5% of neighbors receiving all intended supplies and activities, in a context with operational challenges of population density, supply stock outs, and security constraints. We then applied prospective Poisson space-time scan statistics (STSS) across 3 models for each state: (1) an unadjusted model with case and population data; (2) an environmentally adjusted model adjusting for distance to cholera treatment centers and existing WASH infrastructure (improved water source, improved latrine, and handwashing station); and (3) a fully adjusted model adjusting for environmental and CATI variables (supply of Aquatabs and soap, hygiene promotion, bedding and latrine disinfection activities, ring coverage, and response timeliness). We ran the STSS each day of our study period to evaluate the space-time dynamics of the cholera outbreaks. Compared to the unadjusted model, significant cholera clustering was attenuated in the environmentally adjusted model (from 572 to 18 clusters) but there was still risk of cholera transmission. Two states still yielded significant clusters (range 8-10 total clusters, relative risk of 2.2-5.5, 16.6-19.9 day duration, including 11.1-56.8 cholera cases). Cholera clustering was completely attenuated in the fully adjusted model, with no significant anomalous clusters across time and space. Associated measures including quantity, relative risk, significance, likelihood of recurrence, size, and duration of clusters reinforced the results. Key limitations include selection bias, remote data monitoring, and the lack of a control group. CONCLUSIONS: CATIs were associated with significant reductions in cholera clustering in Northeast Nigeria despite operational challenges. Our results provide a strong justification for rapid implementation and scale-up CATIs in cholera-response, particularly in conflict settings where WASH access is often limited.
RESUMEN
Cholera outbreaks primarily occur in areas lacking adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), and infection can cause severe dehydration and death. As individuals living near cholera cases are more likely to contract cholera, case-area targeted interventions (CATI), where a response team visits case and neighbor households and conducts WASH and/or epidemiological interventions, are increasingly implemented to interrupt cholera transmission. As part of a multi-pronged evaluation on whether CATIs reduce cholera transmission, we compared two organizations' standard operating procedures (SOPs) with information from key informant interviews with 26 staff at national/headquarters and field levels who implemented CATIs in Nigeria in 2021. While organizations generally adhered to SOPs during implementation, deviations related to accessing case household and neighbor household selection were made due to incomplete line lists, high population density, and insufficient staffing and materials. We recommend reducing the CATI radius, providing more explicit context-specific guidance in SOPs, adopting more measures to ensure sufficient staffing and supplies, improving surveillance and data management, and strengthening risk communication and community engagement. The qualitative results herein will inform future quantitative analysis to provide recommendations for overall CATI implementation in future cholera responses in fragile contexts.
